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基于成本有效性分析的福建省自然岸线保护方案

Optimized conservation solution of natural coastlines in Fujian Province based on cost-effectiveness analysis

  • 摘要: 大陆自然岸线保有率的目标落实对我国海洋生态文明建设具有重要意义,但自然岸线保护不可避免地限制沿海地区的发展并增加机会成本。如何确保既定保有率目标的达成,并将由此产生的经济负担降到最低,已成为海岸带综合治理的核心难题。本研究从机会成本视角量化大陆海岸线的保护成本,运用成本有效性分析方法,构建在既定保有率目标约束下成本最小的自然岸线保护模型,并比较模型输出方案与现有方案的经济效率差异,进而提出优化大陆自然岸线保护的政策建议。结果表明,基于机会成本构建的最小成本模型,能够在满足自然岸线保有率目标的约束下,精确输出各地区的最优保护比例与空间布局,实现岸线资源的合理配置。以福建省2025年37.7%的自然岸线保有率目标为例,基于该研究模型测算的年度总成本较现行方案降低约20%~24%,具有显著的经济效率优势。本研究的成本优化方法能够有效协调生态保护与经济发展,为沿海地区自然岸线保护提供定量化、可操作的决策依据,同时在岸线保护的成本核算与方案优化方面实现了方法创新,为福建省及其他沿海地区的海岸带管理提供了科学参考。

     

    Abstract: The implementation of natural coastline retention targets is essential for advancing marine ecological civilization in China. However, protecting natural coastlines inevitably limits coastal development and increases opportunity costs. How to achieve these retention targets while minimizing the associated economic burden has become a key issue in integrated coastal zone management. This study quantifies the conservation costs of mainland coastlines from an opportunity-cost perspective and applies a cost-effectiveness analysis framework to develop a minimum-cost conservation model under a fixed retention target. The model results are compared with existing conservation solutions to evaluate differences in economic efficiency and to provide policy recommendations. Results show that the opportunity cost–based minimum-cost model can accurately determine the optimal conservation proportion and spatial configuration for each region under the overall retention constraint, achieving a rational allocation of shoreline resources. Taking Fujian Province’s 2025 retention target of 37.7% natural shoreline retention rate as a case study, the model-estimated annual total cost is approximately 20%–24% lower than that of the current plan, indicating a significant economic efficiency advantage. The proposed cost optimization approach effectively reconciles ecological protection and economic development, provides quantitative and operational decision support for coastal natural shoreline conservation, and introduces methodological innovation in cost accounting and protection solution optimization, offering scientific reference for coastal zone management in Fujian and other coastal regions.

     

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