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基于时空轴向注意力的海温预测值订正模型

Sea surface temperature correction model based on spatiotemporal axial attention

  • 摘要: 海表面温度(SST) 是表征海洋表层热量状况的核心指标,在海洋动力学、气候预测、海洋生态等众多领域发挥关键的作用。目前,数值模式是海温预测的核心手段,但其输出结果常与实测值存在系统性偏差,亟须进行有效订正。本研究在传统Transformer模型的基础上构建了一种面向SST预测值的时空订正模型。该模型针对海温数据特有的时空关联性,先在嵌入层增加了可学习的空间位置编码,以增加模型对空间的敏感度,再在编码器和解码器中设计了一种时空轴向自注意力机制,依次按纬度、经度和时间3个维度进行特征提取,并在特征提取时只在各自的维度上进行特征提取,以保证特征提取的一致性,有效解决了传统Transformer模型在处理时空序列时对空间信息不敏感的问题,同时克服了对时间与空间维度关联性捕捉不足的固有缺陷。其次,模型引入拉普拉斯物理方程作为约束项融入损失函数,通过施加物理规律(如平滑性)显著增强了订正结果的空间合理性和物理一致性。在日本海区域的实验验证中,该模型对数值模式预测的未来7 d的SST做了误差的订正,将预测准确率提升了63.23%。定量与定性分析均表明,订正后的预测误差显著降低。对比未订正的预测值,本方法的均方根误差(RMSE)由1.181 ℃降至0.434 ℃,其精度明显超越现有主流深度学习方法。此外,跨海域泛化性验证显示,模型在渤海、黄海及南海等不同背景海域的月均RMSE均稳定在0.350~0.450 ℃,未出现系统性失效或季节性偏移。对比结果充分验证了模型的有效性、稳定性与技术优势,展现出在海洋预报业务中广阔的应用潜力。

     

    Abstract: Sea surface temperature (SST) is a core indicator of the ocean’s thermal state and plays a crucial role in fields such as ocean dynamics, climate prediction, and marine ecology. Currently, numerical models serve as the primary tool for SST forecasting; however, their outputs often exhibit systematic biases relative to observed values, necessitating effective post-correction. To address this issue, this study proposes a spatiotemporal correction model for SST forecasts based on an enhanced Transformer architecture. The proposed model explicitly captures the unique spatiotemporal dependencies inherent in SST data by introducing a learnable spatial positional encoding within the embedding layer, thereby enhancing spatial sensitivity. Subsequently, a spatiotemporal self-attention mechanism is designed for both the encoder and decoder, which sequentially extracts features along the latitude, longitude, and time dimensions. The feature extraction is performed independently along each dimension, ensuring consistency and effectively addressing the insensitivity of standard Transformers to spatial information when processing spatiotemporal sequences, while overcoming their inherent limitation in capturing correlations across time and space. Furthermore, the Laplace equation is incorporated as a physical constraint into the loss function, reinforcing the spatial smoothness and physical consistency of the corrected SST fields. Experimental evaluations conducted in the Sea of Japan demonstrate that the proposed model substantially reduces the forecasting error of numerical SST predictions for a seven-day horizon, yielding a 63.23% improvement in accuracy. Both quantitative and qualitative analyses demonstrate a substantial reduction in prediction errors after correction. Compared with uncorrected predictions, the root mean square error (RMSE) of the proposed method decreases from 1.181 ℃ to 0.434 ℃, significantly outperforming existing mainstream deep learning methods. Moreover, cross-region generalization tests show that the model maintains a monthly mean RMSE consistently in the range of 0.350–0.450 ℃ across different marine backgrounds, including the Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and South China Sea, without systematic failure or seasonal bias. These results fully validate the model’s effectiveness, stability, and technical advantages, demonstrating its great potential for operational marine forecasting.

     

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