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融合GAT和时间编码的海上落水人员漂移轨迹预测模型

A drift trajectory prediction model for marine person overboard integrating GAT and time encoding

  • 摘要: 为了解决时空交互模型在轨迹预测上交互能力不足的问题,本研究提出融合图注意力机制(graph attention mechanism,GAT)和时间编码的时空交互轨迹预测模型。该模型由特征增强模块、时空交互模块和动态输出模块3部分组成。算法将具有时序预测能力的双向门控循环单元模型与擅长空间表达能力的图注意力机制相结合,同时注入时间编码实现两者在时间和空间维度的充分交互。图注意力层将输入特征中的目标特征和环境特征分别作为目标节点和邻居节点建立图结构,同时在该层中嵌入时间编码向量,增强图注意力机制对节点特征的动态更新能力,有效捕捉轨迹序列中蕴含的周期性规律和趋势性特征。图注意力层的自适应机制和时间编码增强策略融合双向门控循环单元的双向传播方式,帮助捕捉历史轨迹中的关键节点信息,提高生成轨迹的拟合效果。实验结果表明,在均方误差、平均绝对误差、平均位移误差和最终位移误差4个评价指标上,本研究的时空交互轨迹预测模型均优于对比模型。

     

    Abstract: To address the limitation of insufficient interaction ability of spatiotemporal interaction models in trajectory prediction, this study proposes a spatiotemporal interaction trajectory prediction model (GT-BiGRU) that integrates the graph attention mechanism (GAT) and temporal encoding. This proposed model comprises three modules: a feature enhancement module, a spatiotemporal interaction module, and a dynamic output module. The algorithm combines a bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU), which excels at time-series prediction, with a graph attention mechanism (GAT), which is adept at representing spatial relationships. Temporal encoding is incorporated to facilitate comprehensive interaction between these two components across both temporal and spatial dimensions. In the graph attention layer, the target features and environmental features from the input data are designated as target nodes and neighbor nodes, respectively, to construct a graph structure. At the same time, temporal-encoding vectors are embedded in this layer to enhance the GAT’s dynamic updating ability of node features, effectively capturing the periodic patterns and trending characteristics inherent in trajectory sequences. The adaptive mechanism of the graph attention layer and the temporal-encoding enhancement strategy are integrated with the bidirectional propagation mode of the BiGRU. This integration helps identify key node information within historical trajectories, thereby improving the fitting accuracy of the generated trajectories. The experimental results show that GT-BiGRU outperforms the comparison model across mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), average displacement error (ADE), and final displacement error (FDE).

     

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