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基于复杂网络方法的有效波高序列分析和预测

Analysis and prediction of significant wave height series using complex network methods

  • 摘要: 有效波高是描述海浪的关键参数,其动态特征直接影响海况预测、航运安全和海洋工程设计。本研究首次采用复杂网络中的可视图算法,将墨西哥湾42001号站点10年有效波高序列的每个数据点映射为网络节点,通过数据点间的可视性规则构建连边形成可视图网络,进而分析其网络拓扑特征,以揭示传统统计方法难以捕捉的动态规律。结果表明,飓风“LILI” 、“RITA”和“IKE”经过节点的度数最高,对该站点的有效波高影响显著;有效波高可视图具有无标度特性,且原始时间序列具有长期正相关性(Hurst指数为0.715);社区划分显示同一社区内的节点在时间上连续聚集,反映波高模式的持续性。此外,本研究融合复杂网络与时间序列结构信息加权节点,通过Jensen-Shannon散度计算节点间相似度,构建时间序列预测模型。在单点和多点预测中,平均绝对误差分别为0.492 03和0.465 80,预测性能均优于其他基于网络的预测模型。

     

    Abstract: Significant wave height (SWH) is a key parameter for characterizing ocean waves, whose dynamic features directly affect sea-state prediction, navigation safety, and marine engineering design. This paper, for the first time, applies the visibility graph algorithm from complex network theory. Each data point in a 10-year SWH series from Station 42001 in the Gulf of Mexico is mapped to a network node. Edges are formed between nodes based on visibility criteria, constructing a visibility graph, whose topological characteristics are then analyzed to uncover dynamic patterns difficult to capture using traditional statistical methods. The results indicate that the passages of hurricanes ‘LILI’, ‘RITA’, and ‘IKE’ correspond to nodes with the highest degrees, significantly impacting SWH. The SWH visibility graph exhibits scale-free properties, with the original time series showing long-term positive correlation (Hurst index is 0.715). Community division reveals that nodes within the same community cluster consecutively in time, reflecting the persistence of wave height patterns. Furthermore, this study integrates complex networks and time-series structural information to weight nodes, and Node similarities are computed using Jensen-Shannon divergence to build a time-series prediction model. For single-point and multi-point predictions, the mean absolute errors are 0.492 03 (single-point) and 0.465 80 (multi-point), respectively, demonstrating superior performance compared to other network-based prediction models.

     

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