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基于参数化风场模型的热带气旋风场高分辨率危险性评估—以福州市为例

High-resolution hazard risk assessment of tropical cyclone based on parametric wind field models: a case study of Fuzhou City

  • 摘要: 气候变化和社会经济的快速发展使得沿海地区面临的热带气旋灾害风险显著增加,亟需开展高分辨率的致灾因子危险性评估。基于高精度的地理信息数据和参数化风场模型,本研究以福州市为例构建了一套通用的热带气旋风场高分辨率危险性评估框架流程。首先,从热带气旋最佳路径数据集中提取出影响研究区的路径信息;然后,针对每条路径依次采用经典的梯度风模型、边界层风场模型和阵风模型模拟得到大样本高分辨率的风场分布数据;最后,利用极值分布方法获得了研究区域内100 m网格分辨率的热带气旋典型重现期极值风速和危险等级分布图。案例分析表明,参数化风场模型能够很好地模拟出热带气旋登陆或过境期间风速的演变趋势和空间分布特征,但模拟的过程风速略低于观测值。风场危险性评估结果表明,福州市区域内极值风速分布呈现从沿海向内陆逐步递减的趋势。其中,风速高值区主要位于福州市东部沿海、东南部地势低平区、闽江河道及沿岸、西部山脊和陡坡,50、100、200、500 a重现期最大风速值分别达到40.6、44.8、48.9、53.9 m/s。福州市中心城区被山地和丘陵环绕且城市建筑密集,风速分布均匀,整体危险性中等或较低,而西部山谷区由于高山阻挡危险性最低。本研究不仅可为沿海地区工程结构抗台风设计中的风参数计算提供参考,还可为制定精细化的防灾减灾策略提供指导。

     

    Abstract: Climate change and rapid socio-economic development have significantly increased the risk of tropical cyclone (TC) disasters in coastal areas, highlighting the urgent need for high-resolution hazard risk assessments. This study established a universal framework for high-resolution TC wind hazard assessment by integrating high-precision geographic information data and parametric wind field models, taking Fuzhou City as a case study. First, TC track data affecting the research area were extracted from the best-track dataset. For each track, a high-resolution wind field distribution was simulated by sequentially using classical gradient wind models, boundary layer wind field models, and gust models. Extreme value distribution methods were then applied to generate 100-meter grid-resolution maps of extreme wind speeds for typical return periods. Case analyses demonstrated that parametric wind field models could effectively capture the spatiotemporal evolution of wind speeds during tropical cyclone landfalls or transits, though simulated wind speeds slightly underestimated observational data. The hazard assessment results for typical return period wind speeds show that the distribution of extreme wind speeds in the Fuzhou area decreases gradually from the coast to inland. Specifically, high wind speed areas are mainly located along the eastern coast of Fuzhou, the southeastern low-altitude plains, Min River channel and its banks, and the western ridges and steep slopes, with maximum wind speeds for 50, 100, 200, and 500-year return periods reaching 40.6, 44.8, 48.9, and 53.9 m/s, respectively. The central urban area of Fuzhou, surrounded by mountains and hills and with dense urban construction, exhibits a uniform wind speed distribution with moderate-to-low hazard levels, while the western valley area shows the lowest hazard level due to the blocking effect of high mountains. This study not only provides a reference for the design wind parameters of engineering structures in coastal areas to resist typhoons but also guides to the formulation of refined disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.

     

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