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基于MacBERT的台风灾害评估方法

A typhoon disaster assessment method based on MacBERT

  • 摘要: 台风灾害评估是一个多属性决策问题,针对台风灾害发生后决策信息来源的真实性和时效性问题,本研究提出一种中智环境下基于全词掩码的中文BERT模型(masked language model as correction BERT, MacBERT)的台风灾害评估方法。首先,使用微调后的MacBERT模型对网络实时评论信息分指标量化,采用单值中智数表达台风灾害评论信息的分类结果;然后,采用逼近理想解排序方法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution, TOPSIS)把各个地区受台风灾害影响的程度进行排序,排序结果可用于辅助灾后应急救援工作。最后,以“黑格比”台风为例进行了案例分析,做了详细的灵敏性分析以确定分类模型的最优参数设置;排序结果与官方统计数据进行了对比,证明了评估方法的有效性;从数据转换效率的角度出发将单值中智数与精确数进行对比,证明了单值中智数在表达模型分类结果时比精确数更能有效地保留原始数据;从模型分类效果方面将MacBERT与ChatGPT模型进行对比,证明了微调后的MacBERT模型在处理台风灾害评论文本时具有更好的效果,最佳F1值达到0.983。

     

    Abstract: Typhoon disaster assessment is a multi-attribute decision-making problem. Aiming at the authenticity and timeliness of decision information sources after typhoon disasters, this paper proposes a typhoon disaster assessment method based on the masked language model as correction BERT (MacBERT) within a neutrosophic environment. Firstly, a fine-tuned MacBERT model is used to quantify the real-time online commentary information by indicator, and the single-valued neutrosophic numbers are used to express the classification results of typhoon disaster comments. Subsequently, technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) method is used to rank the impact severity of typhoon disaster across different regions, providing a prioritized sequence to support post-disaster emergency rescue operations. Finally, a case study using typhoon Hagupit is conducted. A detailed sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the optimal parameter setting for the classification model. Then, ranking results are compared with official statistical data, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed evaluation method. From the point of view on the data conversion efficiency compared with the exact number, it is proved that the single-valued neutrosophic numbers can retain the original data more effectively than the exact number when expressing the model classification results. The classification performance of MacBERT is also benchmarked against the ChatGPT model, confirming that the fine-tuned MacBERT model achieves better results in processing typhoon disaster commentary text, with an optimal F1-score reaching 0.983.

     

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