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基于最大熵模型预测北部湾东北部水域中华白海豚的潜在栖息地

Predicting the potential habitats of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in northeastern Beibu Gulf of China based on MaxEnt model

  • 摘要: 中华白海豚(Sousa chinensis)是近岸海洋生态系统的旗舰物种和指示物种,但目前对该物种的分布范围了解仍然存在局限,许多未经调查的区域缺少基线信息。本研究在野外调查的基础上,结合卫星遥感数据,使用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型将调查点位映射至北部湾东北部近岸水域,预测了该水域中华白海豚的潜在适宜栖息地。环境变量的相关系数分析结果表明,叶绿素a浓度、离岸距离、海表温度、水体漫衰减系数和水深等5个环境变量之间相关性较低,用于最终的分析。模型运行结果显示曲线下面积(area under curve, AUC)为0.991,模型拟合度较好。刀切法测试结果表明叶绿素a和离岸距离是影响该水域中华白海豚分布的主要因素,而海表温度、水体漫衰减系数和水深的影响则相对较小,并且环境因子的影响均有最适区间。在北部湾东北部水域,大部分水域都是中华白海豚的潜在适宜栖息地,但高适生区主要零散分布在沙田-草潭水域、三娘湾水域以及北海市南部的冠头岭水域,表明当前该物种栖息地存在破碎化。目前,主要针对前两块高适生区开展了调查研究,其他水域的基线信息较为空白。因此,未来应扩大中华白海豚的调查范围,确认这些水域是否有中华白海豚的分布,并采取相应措施进行保护,如推动建立保护区、纳入海岸带综合管理、开展生态修复、推动信息共享等。

     

    Abstract: As a flagship and indicator species, the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) plays a critical role in near-shore marine ecosystems. However, knowledge of its distribution remains limited, with significant gaps in baseline data across unexplored regions. This study employed a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict the potential suitable habitats of Sousa chinensis in northeastern Beibu Gulf, China, by integrating field survey data with satellite remote sensing data. Correlation coefficient analysis of environmental variables identified 5 minimally correlated factors: chlorophyll a concentration, distance from shore, sea surface temperature, water diffuse attenuation coefficient, and water depth, which were therefore used in the final model analysis. The model demonstrated excellent predictive performance, with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.991, indicating high predictive accuracy. Jackknife tests revealed that chlorophyll a concentration and distance from shore were the most influential predictors of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin distribution, while sea surface temperature, diffuse attenuation coefficient, and water depth played relatively minor roles. Each environmental variable exhibited an optimal range influencing habitat suitability. Results indicate that much of northeastern Beibu Gulf offer potentially suitable habitat, but areas of high suitability are patchily distributed, primarily concentrated in Shatian-Caotan waters, Sanniang Bay, and the region south of Beihai City near Guantouling, suggesting ongoing habitat fragmentation for this species. To date, research efforts have focused primarily on the first two highly suitable areas, while baseline information for other regions remains scarce. Therefore, future efforts should expand survey coverage to confirm the presence of Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins in these regions. Corresponding conservation actions are recommended, promoting the establishment of protected areas, integrating management into coastal zone planning, conducting ecological restoration, and facilitating information sharing.

     

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