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中国沿海地区对全球变化的响应及风险研究
蔡榕硕,谭红建,郭海峡
0
(自然资源部第三海洋研究所,福建 厦门 361005)
摘要:
中国沿海地区对全球变化的响应及风险具有高度的复杂性及不确定性,亟需深入开展相关研究。本研究着重回顾了近年来有关我国沿海地区陆域及海域对全球变化的响应特征、机制以及风险的若干研究成果。分析表明,自1960年代以来,全球变暖背景下我国沿海地区陆域及相邻海域的表面温度上升趋势十分显著,上升幅度和速率均高于全球平均值;生物与非生物的物候变化显著,温暖期(春、秋季)明显变长,并以东中国海(渤、黄、东海)最为显著;海洋物种地理分布变化、生物季节演替和群落结构与功能异常突显,赤潮、绿潮等生态灾害频繁,赤潮有年代际增加现象,热带海域珊瑚白化加剧。分析还表明,自1980年以来,我国沿海地区出现越来越多的高温热浪,沿海海平面持续上升并不断达到新高度,特别是破纪录的极端高海温事件、超强台风风暴潮和极端高水位频发,这使得沿海地区社会生态系统的气候暴露度不断增大;同时,沿岸海域富营养化、大规模围填海、破坏性以及过度捕捞等人类活动加剧了社会生态系统的气候脆弱性,沿海地区的洪涝灾害严重,滨海湿地生境和生物多样性减少。未来不同气候情景下中国东部尤其是东中国海很可能是全球升温和海平面上升幅度最大的海区之一。这表明未来我国沿海地区的灾害风险格局趋于复杂多变。为此,本研究指出了急需深入研究我国沿海地区全球变化综合风险的若干科学问题与关键技术。
关键词:  物理海洋学  中国东部  沿海区域  全球变化  响应  风险
DOI:
基金项目:国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”专项资助项目(2017YFA0604902); 中国清洁发展机制基金赠款资助项目(2014112);国家社科基金重大资助项目(17ZDA172);自然资源部第三海洋研究所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(海三科2017030)
Responses and compound risks of the coastal China areas to global change
CAI Rong-shuo,TAN Hong-jian,GUO Hai-xia
(Third Institute of Oceanography, MNR, Xiamen 361005, China)
Abstract:
Because of the high complexity and uncertainty of the responses and compound risks of global change in the coastal China areas, it is imperative for further research. This paper conducts a review of recent literatures concerning the responses, mechanisms and risks of the coastal zone and seas in China to the global change. Results show that since the 1960s, under global warming, the coastal China area has experienced a significant warming trend and the increase range and rate of surface temperatures in the coastal China zone and seas are higher than the global mean. The phenological changes of biotic and abiotic have significantly changed. The warm period (spring and autumn) of the year has been elongated, particularly in the East China Sea (Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea and East China Sea). The geographical distribution of marine species, biological seasonal succession, biocommunity structure and function have undergone great changes. Marine ecological disasters such as red tide and green tide are frequent, e.g. red tide has an interdecadal increase, and coral bleaching in tropical sea is exacerbated. The analysis also shows that since the 1980s, more and more high temperature and heat waves have appeared in the coastal China seas. The coastal sea level has continued to rise and reached new heights. The recordbreaking extreme high sea temperature events, super typhoonstorm surges and extreme sea levels have occurred frequently, so that the climate exposure of coastal socialecological systems increase. Meanwhile, human activities, such as eutrophication, largescale reclamation, destructive fishing and overfishing in coastal waters have aggravated the climate vulnerability of socialecological system. The floods in coastal areas are serious and the habitat and biodiversity of coastal wetlands are reduced. It is very likely that the coastal China areas, especially the East China Sea, become one of the greatest warming area in the world. It is suggested that the disaster risk of the coastal China areas tends to be more complex and change in the future. To this end, this paper points out that a number of scientific issues and key technologies of risk assessment to global change need urgently studied in the coastal China areas.
Key words:  physical oceanography  coastal China areas  global change  response  compound risk

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