| 摘要: |
| 过去百年来人类活动排放的温室气体已经改变了全球海洋的物理和化学属性，并且，这种变化在未来很可能持续下去.基于IPCC第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中IPSL-CM5A-MR地球系统模式的模拟结果，评估了未来百年（～2100年）中国近海区域的海洋环境要素（温度、盐度、溶解氧、pH值和叶绿素a浓度）的变化趋势及空间分布特征.结果表明，未来不同的温室气体排放情景下中国近海区域海温升高、溶解氧（DO）含量减少、海水pH值降低和叶绿素a浓度减少，并且温室气体排放越多上述变化越显著.东中国海区（包括渤海、黄海和东海）盐度可能会增加，而南海盐度会降低.在相同的温室气体排放情景下，东中国海区海温增加、溶解氧减少、海水pH值降低和叶绿素a浓度减少的幅度均显著高于南海区域.在中等浓度和高浓度排放情景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）情景下，到21世纪末期（2090～2100年间）东中国海相对于历史时期（1980～2005年）的升温幅度可能将分别会超过2、4℃，海水pH值降低幅度将可能分别超过0.15和0.30，并且海洋变暖和酸化还将很可能引起DO含量和叶绿素a浓度的进一步降低，最终影响整个海区的环境与生态.因此，未来东中国海生态系统和生物多样性将面临严重风险，这也使得应对气候变化的适应性措施成为当前的紧迫议题. |
| 关键词: 海洋水文学 CMIP5预估 海表温度 溶解氧 pH值 叶绿素a含量 |
| DOI：10.3969/J.ISSN.2095-4972.2018.02.001 |
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| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划专项资助项目（2017YFA0604901）；国家社科基金重大资助项目（17ZDA172）；国家海洋局第三海洋研究所基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(海三科2017030)；中国清洁机制发展基金赠款资助项目(2014112) |
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| Projecting changes of marine environment in coastal China Seas over 21st century based on CMIP5 Models |
| TAN Hong-jian,CAI Rong-shuo,YAN Xiu-hua |
| (Third Institute of Oceanography， SOA， Xiamen 361005， China) |
| Abstract: |
| The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will cause fundamental changes to the physical and chemical biological properties of our centrally oceans. In this study， we assessed the changes of sea surface temperature （SST），salinity，dissolved oxygen （DO），sea water pH， and chlorophyll concentration in the coastal China seas over the 21st century based on the fifth phase of the coupled model inter comparison project （CMIP5）. The results show that the coastal China seas will experience significant warming， deoxygenation， acidification， and reduced chlorophyll， as a consequence of increasing greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades. Larger changes of marine environment were found in the East China Seas （ECS， including Bohai， Yellow Sea， and East China Sea） compared to the South China Sea. By the end of this century，SST（pH） in ECS will increase （decrease） by 2℃ （0.15） and 4℃ （0.30）， respectively， under the high and medium concentration emission scenarios. The enhanced warming and acidification in ECS will further result in deoxygenation and decline in chlorophyll， and thus resulting impacts environmentally and ecologically. Consequently， the coastal China seas， especially the ECS， will face the risk of serious climate change. The urgent to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with relevant adaptive measures should be proposed． |
| Key words: marine hydrology CMIP5 projection SST DO pH value chlorophyll concentration |
